Decision Nerds Paul Richards & Joe Wiggins

𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗱𝗼 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗴𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗮𝗻 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗿?1. Hire a manager after a period of strong performance.2. Watch in horror as you don’t experience that outcome, maybe the opposite.3. Spend a huge amount of time and emotional labour deciding on whether your initial thesis was wrong, something has changed at the manager, or with market dynamics.4. After sucking up a huge amount of governance time, decide to sack the manager. 5. Rinse and repeat with potentially similar outco...

Thinking and talking about failure can be tough, especially when it’s us who’s failing. But it’s important for us as individuals and investment teams to find a way to do this in an effective manner that allows us to both learn and evolve. In this episode of Decisions Nerds… - Joe pits his inner Brian Blessed against an AI auto-editor - We examine Joe’s framework for thinking about errors around investment beliefs, processes and outcomes.- We then think about this in the contex...

We downed some eggnog and decided to record an impromptu Christmas special. We have a chat about how insights from behavioural science might help the festive holidays proceed more smoothly: 😂 Why Joe's team might think (in his own words) that he’s an ‘egotistical a*&hole’.😧 A simple way to feel better about Christmas (but you might not like it).😠 The nudges that retailers use to get us to buy. 💵 Gift cards or cash as a present – to constrain or not to con...

Following the publication of a new book, 'The Fund', Ray Dalio and Bridgewater have been getting attention for all the wrong reasons. The book alleges a toxic culture where the reality of day-to-day life doesn’t match that described in Dalio’s book, ‘Principles’. In this episode of Decision Nerds, we dive into the sludge and extract some key points that are relevant for organisations and teams. Key takeaways:#𝟭 𝗗𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗲 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘆𝗼𝘂It’s tempting to look at ...

In this episode we discuss how we can make better forecasts with Professor Paul Goodwin. We tackle everything from the techniques available, to human problems around understanding, bias and incentives. See the chapter headings for full details. NotesPhilip Tetlock's book is Superforecasting: The Art and Science of PredictionA paper that describes the key concepts can be found here.

Does fear of getting things wrong stop you from making decisions? If so, you’re not alone. Regret can have a profound impact on our choices. In this short episode, we unpack the challenges, discuss some solutions and use the timely case of thematic investment funds as a case in point. We tackle: The psychological nature of regret – why it can be useful, but also harmful.How regret can impact the best and bright of us – smarts and market knowledge are no defence. How ...