Money Life with Chuck Jaffe Chuck Jaffe

John Blank, chief investment strategist and chief economist at Zacks Investment Research, says that there will not be a recession -- or anything resembling it -- this year, but he makes it clear the can't be said for 2025, once the election cycle and concerns about the impact of higher interest rates and inflation staying around longer play out. Blank says he does not expect the Federal Reserve to be pressured into making rate cuts, but notes that it could make a cut in the fall leading into the election if the data suggests one is appropriate, but he doesn't see the central bank moving off of its plan to get inflation back to the 2 percent level. When that plays out in that recession that's coming for next year, Blank says it could help to minimize the duration of the downturn. Also on the show, Adam Ruben, vice president of the Economic Security Project, discusses the group's survey of consumers using the IRS Direct File pilot program, noting  that the new filing methods drew a lot of consumer interest but also a lot of praise by the 140,000-plus taxpayers who used the system across 12 states. He expects the IRS to dramatically expand the program in the near future, given the strength of the results this year. Plus, in the Market Call, Noland Langford, chief executive officer at Left Brain Wealth Management talks growth stocks.
 

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that the years after peak inflation and peak tightening tend to be good for markets, and he expects that to continue with a market and economy that he thinks can avoid big downturns. Levitt says the economy never got the recession many people expected because the economy didn't have a lot of excesses to create bubbles or big issues, but also because trouble came in spots, rolling into one area without taking over the whole landscape. As a result, Levitt's major guideposts for recession haven't been flashing warning signs, though he acknowledges that the next six months will likely rise and fall almost entirely based on the actions of the Federal Reserve and how the market responds to them. Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors, says he expects the market to recapture the record highs it was at earlier this year, with a year-end target of 5400 for the Standard & Poor's 500. Plus Ken Laudan, portfolio manager, Buffalo Large Cap Growth Fund discusses innovative, high-quality, durable large-cap growth companies in the Market Call. 

Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says  that while a soft landing has been priced into the stock market, sticky inflation is what could make things take a turn for the worse, noting that the longer inflation hangs around, interest rates won't be cut and that will lead to a rougher downturn. Ceci says interest rates are a driving force for stock markets, with an inverse relation where rates staying high would be bad for equities, while rate cuts would be a big plus. Also on the show: Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Wholesale Beer Association, discusses  the Beer Purchasers' Index reaching its highest levels since 2021, portending a strong summer not only for beer drinkers but for the economy; David Trainer of New Constructs puts a Fidelity sector fund into the Danger Zone, and Mac Sykes, portfolio manager for Gabelli, talks financial stocks in the Market Call.

Jeremy Schwartz, global chief investment officer at WisdomTree, says that despite current headlines, the economy will have a higher real growth rate, with productivity improved by technological advances and continued full employment, which should help the economy avoid recession. He notes that inflation rates may not be quite as high as they seem, saying that inflation is below official government levels when looked at in more updated, modern ways to evaluate consumer prices, noting that shelter costs are dramatically overstated in traditional measures, skewing the numbers. All of this creates a positive long-term outlook, Schwartz said. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says the market's technical picture suggests a downturn in the offing, but likely nothing beyond a 5 percent decline before the market resumes pursuit of record highs. Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income for abrdn says that record discount levels for municipal bond closed-end funds, coupled with attractive yields on those funds, are creating real opportunities for income investors. In the Market Call, Adam Peck of Riverwater Partners talks about putting a social investment lens over a market view to select stocks.

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers Solutions, says that inflation is moving in the right direction -- albeit more slowly -- and economic growth remains resilient, creating an environment where corporate earnings continue to grind higher. That has him locking into his plan and overweighting stocks. Janasiewicz says that so long as inflation doesn't reaccelerate and force the Federal Reserve to increase rates, conditions should remain benign and comfortable for investors. Also on the show, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) his pick for "ETF of the Week," and in the Market Call, David Kalis, portfolio manager at The Future Fund, talks about finding the right forward-looking opportunities in markets now.

Lyle Fitterer, portfolio manager for the Baird Strategic Municipal Bond fund, says that investors should take the Federal Reserve at its word, expecting interest rates to have peaked, anticipate a cut but don't expect it to happen until the numbers warrant it. That may not happen until late in the year or into 2025. Meanwhile, he notes investors are getting strong returns -- particularly in muni bond funds where there are additional tax benefits from investing -- though not getting paid to take on extra credit risk, even though defaults and delinquencies haven't gone up dramatically with rates staying higher for longer. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest Bankrate.com survey showing that Americans aren't just planning to go far and wide this summer, they're planning to go into debt to get there;  Chuck goes "Off The News" with the Department of Labor's release of new fiduciary guidelines for investment managers, and Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer of the Jacob Funds talks small-cap technology in the Market Call.