Markets 360 BNP Paribas Global Markets

Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research 
Jeffrey Schultz, Chief CEEMEA Economist
Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst  
Niccolo Carrara, Emerging Markets Economist


BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 04 January 2024) 


• There are significant pockets of vulnerability in countries’ ability to respond to physical risks related to climate change, according to our new BNP Paribas climate adaptation readiness scores.
• Some of the weakest scores are in south Asia, as well as in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
• Agriculture’s exposure to water stress is a potential source of global inflation volatility.
• In the short term, a potentially strong El Niño episode might keep food prices elevated.
• In the medium term, without sufficient adaptation, the agricultural sector might suffer unexpected losses and cost pressures due to climate change.
• EM governments face the prospect of responding to more frequent food supply shocks and investing in climate adaptation against the backdrop of severely depleted fiscal capacity.



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With: Niccolo Carrara, Economist, Emerging Markets | BNP Paribas London Branch  



This podcast was recorded  9 November 2023


Artificial intelligence provides some threats to emerging markets, we think.
To avoid sharp distortion across countries, regulation requires harmonisation at the global level, which could be hard to find amid US-China geopolitical tensions.
An unequitable distribution of benefits from AI, potentially aggravating income inequality, is likely to be a major hurdle.
Notwithstanding these threats, AI also offers scope for meaningful productivity gains in some sectors, particularly those that are able to adapt quickly.
We argue it is time for some EM to broaden their focus beyond manufacturing-based export-led growth




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Carl Riccadonna, Chief Economist, US

Andrew Schneider, Senior Economist, US 

Andrew Husby, Senior Economist, US  



BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 10 October 2023)  




The US consumer has powered ahead this year, but we see several factors that could slow spending in the near term.
Most lower and middle-income households have depleted their excess savings, while interest payments as a share of income look set to approach levels last seen ahead of the global financial crisis. 
We expect consumer spending growth to slow sharply this quarter, to just 0.5% q/q saar from a 3.6% Q3 pace.







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Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research 

Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst  




BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 18 August 2023) 





Physical climate risk is rising in intensity and frequency globally. 
(Re)insurance plays the essential role of shock absorber, protecting from a natural disaster’s second-round impacts on economic activity and the wider financial system. 
However, given increasing and more chronic insured losses, the protection gap is rising, leaving parts of the economy and of the world highly vulnerable. 
There is room for (re)insurers, high-risk industries, public sector and regulators to mitigate risk and seize opportunities, we argue. 




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Carl Riccadonna, Chief Economist, US

Andrew Schneider, Senior Economist, US 

Yelena Shulyatyeva, Senior Economist, US

Andrew Husby, Senior Economist, US 






BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 03 August 2023) 





We expect household excess savings – which has bolstered consumer spending over the last eighteen months – be depleted by the end of this year.
Watch for more price elastic consumer spending as households become increasingly dependent on paycheck income.





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Pamela Díaz Loubet, Economist, Mexico

Debora Luncaorte, Economist, Mexico 




BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 10 July 2023) 





We discuss Mexico’s disinflation process, its risks and implications for the monetary policy path in  the country.





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