The Contrarian Investor Podcast Nathaniel E. Baker

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 29, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the next trading day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, visit our substack.
Enrique Abeyta of HX Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his (constructive) views on the stock market, why commercial real estate concerns are overdone, and to provide one stock pick -- and it's not Nvidia, though he does discuss that at some length.
Some mature language is used at a few points. Sensitive listeners should be advised. 
The guest's microphone setup is significantly better than the host's so don't get discouraged by the host sounding like he's hiding in a cave at the open.
Content Highlights
Trends are underrated. Many investors don't respect them or understand what they mean. The current trend is clearly long-term bullish for stocks (2:21); However over the short term there could (probably will) be a pull back -- as appears to be happening the week after recording (5:24); On the whole, however, the outlook is very constructive. So constructive that the guest has only seen this clarity 10 times or less in his 30-year career (12:30); When it comes to the Federal Reserve, there is a strong possibility interest rate policy stays roughly the same... (15:36); Contrarian take: there's no need to worry about commercial real estate: (19:00); Regional banks presented an opportunity a year ago. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is not an opportunity now (23:54); Views on Nvidia (NVDA): not super constructive (28:20); One long term idea: Independent power producer Talen Energy (TLNE), owner of a nuclear power plant. The company recently emerged from bankruptcy (34:51). More on the Guest
Website: HXResearch.net; Twitter/X: @EnriqueAbeyta.

This podcast was released for premium subscribers on March 20, 2024. For more information on premium subscriptions please visit our Substack.
Financial market historian Daniel Peris joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, The Ownership Dividend, and why the next stage of the investing cycle will be marked by renewed focus on dividends and cash flows.
Note: The host's mic was a little 'stuffy' for this episode but the guest comes in loud and clear!
Content Highlights
Cashflows have become ignored in the marketplace with investors accustomed to speculation over income. That is due to change (2:55); No, this isn't about value versus growth. Dividends and more notably buybacks are everywhere (5:22); Warren Buffett has long said that companies should reinvest in the business rather than pay out dividends. But Buffett is no longer a minority shareholder... (18:30) Background on the guest and unexpected detour into Russia/Ukraine (27:37); Views on different sectors of the stock market from a dividend perspective (36:33); What does the current era of dividend payouts say about the investing cycle? (42:40). More on the Guest
Website: StrategicDividendInvestor.com; Twitter: @HistoryInvestor; Order the book.

This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 1, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers on March 6. For more information on premium memberships visit our Substack.
Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History, joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today's market environment.
Content Highlights
What period from the past compares closest to the one we're living through now? It's a combination of several... (1:56); The last time the US -- and Federal Reserve -- battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today's age... (4:36); The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04); Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51); Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost -- and risks (15:40); Decentralized currencies aren't new and in fact once characterized the US dollar -- and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn't end well... (18:06); Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05); Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator... (27:17); The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36); The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25). More From the Guest
Website: EnlightenedInvestor.com; Order the book on Amazon.com; LinkedIn: @MarkHiggins.

This podcast was recorded on Feb. 15, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads, natch). For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack or Supercast.
Ted Oakley, founder of Austin, Tex.-based Oxbow Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on markets and the economy and why this is a time to get defensive with one's portfolio.
Content Highlights
The stock market highs for the year will be set during the first quarter (1:47); "There are things that people don't see" (or at least don't publicize) that are pointing to a slowdown in the economy (3:08); One of these is the US consumer, who is now borrowing to finance purchases (4:59); Another is commercial real estate, which is just starting to rear its head... (6:05); Interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve may be further away than realized due to inflation risks (8:22); Oxbow has been invested in 'Magnificent 7' stocks Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) for some time, but has been trimming these holdings and is certainly not looking to add more. But certain defensive sectors got cheap recently... (10:48); Background on the guest (23:07); What previous period in investment history is today's market most reminiscent of? Bulls will not like this answer... (29:32). More from the guest
Website: OxbowAdvisors.com; Twitter: @Oxbow_Advisors; YouTube; LinkedIn: Oxbow_Advisors.

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss his "surprisingly optimistic" outlook for the US economy in 2024.
This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 30, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our Substack or Supercast pages.

Content Highlights
The outlook for the economy is surprisingly optimistic given the set-up going in to last year (1:30); The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates for some time (2:39); Can stocks continue to advance without rate cuts? The outlook for small caps and mid-caps... (6:35); The outlook for bonds: surprisingly constructive even if there aren't rate cuts right away (10:05); How the economy is breaking down geographically in the US... (17:01); Commercial real estate is 'the canary in the coal mine' but nowhere near as pervasive as subprime residential pre-2008... (24:36); The guest's take on the impact of this year's US presidential election (28:15); Top concerns start with deficit spending... (33:23); An economist's take on the AI revolution (39:28). More on the Guest
Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com; Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.

This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For details on how to become a premium subscriber (it's very easy), visit our Substack or Supercast.
Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his outlook for the economy and markets in 2024.
Content Highlights
Knapp's outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period... (3:29); Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve (7:00); The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in goods prices (8:57); How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March... (11:36); Why bonds haven't continued to rally this year (16:58); The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06); Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change... (28:35); Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All have led to major recessions... (36:40); How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31) More About the Guest
Website and newsletter: IronsidesMacro.substack.com; Twitter: @BarryKnapp.